Halfway through the 8th Fuel Cell Expo in Tokyo, one can sense a palpable uptick in activity and optimism compared to the 2009 show. This time not just industry, but government, appears to be driving interest.
The most astounding news comes out of Korea. A new residential fuel cell program driven by deep government cost share has a goal of 10,000 units installed by 2012 and 2 million units by 2020. Federal and local support in 2010 amounts to 90 percent of the purchase price. The percentage from government will decline over the next 10 years as volume increases and unit costs decline. Korea already has an aggressive fuel cell power generation initiative and aims to capture jobs as part of the deal.
In Japan, five residential fuel cell manufacturers have formed a marketing partnership called ENE-FARM, complete with advertising on television, in print and even on the subway. Sales of about 4,000 units, supported by government cost share, are moderately ahead of estimates. Kunihiro Nishizaki, whose title has changed from PEM Research Manager at Tokyo Gas to PEM Appliance Development Manager, told us the durability challenge has been cracked.
Tokyo gas guarantees 40,000 hours, 4,000 on-off cycles or 10 years, and hopes to push the guarantee to 50,000 or even 60,000 hours. These numbers are at least twice what experts said was achievable by PEM systems only a few years ago. Japan’s government deserves praise for its willingness to embrace a long term program of support for R&D, Demonstration and early commercialization. In the US we are really good at supporting research but still learning the patience needed to stick with technologies all the way to the marketplace.
There is residential action in Europe as well. Germany’s NOW program includes installation of about 800 residential units by 2012, and the UK government announced a per-kilowatt hour payment for any home generation system, including fuel cells (the range is between 10 pence and 13 pence); the program will be evaluated after the first 12,000 units are installed.
The day before the conference brought another big piece of news. The auto industry, backed by Japan’s energy retailers, unveiled a plan to install 1,000 hydrogen fueling stations to support 2 million fuel cell vehicles by 2025. Those numbers are reasonably consistent with the estimates of the US National Research Council in 2008. Industry is organized under the Fuel Cell Commercialization Group of Japan. It may be too much for the government all at once but it is clear the government has already indicated its interest. Two officials spoke at the unveiling.
As for me, I delivered my very first speech on fuel cells that focused entirely on markets and business cases rather than on technology development and potential benefits. I am interested to see what the rest of the show will bring.
- Bob Rose -
|Back|
