We want to wish everyone very happy holidays and hope you all have a wonderful new year.

See you in 2010!
- Jen & Brynne, Fuel Cell Insiders

The National Research Council has released a new report, Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies - Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles, that concludes that the costs of plug-in hybrid electric cars are high and unlikely to decrease drastically in the near future.  Subsidies in the tens to hundreds of billions of dollars will be needed if plug-ins are to achieve rapid penetration of the U.S. automotive market. Even with these investments, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles are not expected to significantly impact oil consumption or carbon emissions before 2030.

The report also found that in addition to cheaper batteries, access to electric outlets in parking spaces is needed as well as advanced smart meters and electrical system upgrades for home recharging.   The National Resource Council recommends that the U.S. needs to adopt a “portfolio approach” to curbing oil use.   “This should include increasing the fuel efficiency of conventional vehicles and pursuing research, development, and demonstration into alternative strategies, including the use of bio-fuels, electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles.”   We agree. What do you think?

There is also a new web page that incorporates most of the computer simulation work behind the NHA’s “Energy Evolution” paper.  The site is intended to provide technical details of the various alternative vehicles (hybrids, plug-ins, biofuels, battery EVs and fuel cell EVs), including quick links to the latest papers and reports in this field.

Curt Suplee’s article on hydrogen in the Washington Post, “Don’t Bet on a Hydrogen Car Anytime Soon”, is still circulating in Washington and deserves a response.  Suplee prides himself on colorful writing, but I’m afraid this time he has let his appetite for shocking adjectives overwhelm his judgment.  Everyone’s entitled to an opinion.  But the dialogue over the motor vehicle of the future was clouded enough without this contribution.

Suplee rightly notes that hydrogen fuel cell vehicles offer a more secure and planet- friendly transportation future.   Hydrogen is such a good energy carrier that it is added to gasoline today in ever increasing quantities to improve performance and lower emissions.  Hydrogen can be extracted from fossil fuels, biofuels and even water.  This flexibility is a strength, not a weakness.  It allows motor fuel to be produced from a variety of locally available sources, just as our electric grid includes coal, natural gas, renewable and nuclear power. 

This is not a Bush Administration plot.  The ramping up of federal interest in fuel cell vehicles began with the Clinton Administration.  It has produced exceptional results, rivaling the best of DOE’s research programs.  And best of all from the taxpayers’ perspective, government funding is a small fraction – no more than 20% — of what the auto industry itself has invested.  And the total invested in hydrogen over the past 20 years is less than we are spending on batteries this year alone. 

There is a robust and ubiquitous hydrogen production and distribution network in the US and worldwide, and the industry has compiled an exemplary safety record over the past 50 years.  Like all fuels hydrogen needs to be treated with respect, but you can make a case that, if anything, hydrogen is safer than gasoline today, and because it is used so much more efficiently there is much less fuel on board a hydrogen vehicle. 

It is true that nearly all the hydrogen produced commercially today is extracted from natural gas, but once again that is good news not bad news.  US supplies of natural gas are abundant and increasing.  Natural gas will always be cheaper than oil on an energy equivalent basis.  It is a clean fuel, used for decades in the US to displace dirtier fuels such as coal or oil for power generation.  It is an even better fuel when converted to hydrogen for use in a fuel cell, for two reasons. 

The process of extracting hydrogen begins with a 50-50 mix of natural gas and water – a low carbon mix.  But the real benefit comes when the fuel is used in a fuel cell.  The fuel cell relies on chemistry and not combustion, and is inherently efficient.  Today’s best fuel cell vehicles get 60 miles per gallon equivalent or better, and these are full-size vehicles that have all the room and creature comforts that consumers demand. 

Sure, it takes energy to make hydrogen.  But it takes energy to make any fuel.  The bottom line – from independent tests — is that fuel cell vehicles are nearly three times more efficient and nearly two-thirds cleaner than today’s gasoline cars, and cleaner and more efficient than today’s hybrids.

This efficiency translates to savings for the consumer.  The consumer price of hydrogen at the pump today competes with gasoline on per-mile basis in some locations and the price will fall rapidly as demand increases. 

Natural gas is a fossil fuel.  But every energy pathway open to cars today relies exclusively or largely on fossil fuel. In the Midwest for example an electric vehicle will “run” mostly on coal.  It is also true that hydrogen will need to be delivered to the consumer.  But hydrogen gives us options we don’t have with gasoline.  We can move hydrogen by truck, or by pipeline, or produce it close to the point of use, depending on local economics.

Electricity shares many of the benefits of hydrogen; fuel cell vehicles are electric vehicles, after all.  And there is room for both pathways in our motor vehicle future.  There is also a role for biofuels, and the biofuels-to-hydrogen pathway is an exciting renewable option already opening up.  But it is a disservice to imply that the battery electrical vehicle pathway will be easy or cheap.  A coalition of electric utilities this week asked for $120 Billion from the federal government over eight years to facilitate the commercialization of EV’s.  For less than half that amount we could establish a profitable nationwide network of hydrogen stations and deploy millions of full-function, marketable fuel cell vehicles, according to the National Academies of Science.

A hydrogen fuel cell future is no more difficult than any other transportation future.  It is a realistic, cost competitive option that offers tremendous flexibility and tremendous value.  It is no tailpipe dream; in fact there is no tailpipe at all.

- Bob Rose